A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
